Market Analysis

A specific model identifier 'claude-sonnet-5@20260203' was detected in Vertex AI logs on February 1-2, 2026, strongly suggesting a public launch on February 3. While the resolution criteria contains a clerical year error (2025), the market price and title confirm trading for the 2026 window. At 83c, the market is offering a double-digit return on an event with high technical confirmation.

This market offers significantly higher liquidity ($16k+) and volume ($111k) compared to the February window. The March 31 deadline provides a safety cushion in case the rumored February 3 launch faces a minor administrative delay, though the technical logs indicate the model is already staged for deployment. The expected value remains positive even at the higher entry price.