Market Analysis

Analysis generated 8 hours ago

Executive Summary

2/5/2026, 4:49:15 PM

The 2026 Best Picture market currently exhibits extreme skew, with a single unreleased foreign-language film commanding a 71% win probability, which is historically unprecedented. This creates massive value in 'No' positions for the favorites and highly discounted 'Yes' positions for proven prestige directors like Lanthimos and Del Toro.

BUY 🡆 NO

Massive Mispricing on One Battle After Another

+243% EV

Conf: 95/100

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

AI Prob

98.0%

Price (Then)

28.5¢

Price (Now)

28.5¢

Kelly Stake

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A 71% 'Yes' price for an unreleased foreign film 14 months before the ceremony is irrational. Even historical sweeps like 'Oppenheimer' don't hit these levels until weeks before. The 'No' side provides 3.5x returns on an outcome that is historically 95%+ likely to occur.

BUYING NO

BUY 🡆 YES

Lanthimos's Bugonia is Extremely Undervalued

+1100% EV

Conf: 75/100

Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

AI Prob

6.0%

Price (Then)

0.5¢

Price (Now)

0.5¢

Kelly Stake

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Yorgos Lanthimos has a perfect record of Oscar success recently (Poor Things, The Favourite). Bugonia stars Emma Stone and is a Tier-1 contender. A 0.5% market probability is a significant floor-pricing error for a major contender.

BUYING YES

BUY 🡆 NO

Short Sinners at Inflated 18% Price

+17% EV

Conf: 85/100

Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

AI Prob

96.0%

Price (Then)

81.8¢

Price (Now)

81.8¢

Kelly Stake

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Ryan Coogler's Sinners is a supernatural horror/thriller. While likely to be a commercial hit, horror films historically struggle to even be nominated for Best Picture, let alone win. An 18% win probability is far too high for this genre.

BUYING NO

BUY 🡆 YES

High Value on Del Toro's Frankenstein

+566% EV

Conf: 70/100

Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

AI Prob

4.0%

Price (Then)

0.6¢

Price (Now)

0.6¢

Kelly Stake

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Guillermo del Toro is a previous Best Picture winner and an Academy favorite. His high-budget adaptation of Frankenstein is exactly the type of technical marvel the Academy rewards. 0.6% odds represent excellent long-shot value.

BUYING YES

BUY 🡆 YES

A24's Marty Supreme Underpriced

+201% EV

Conf: 65/100

Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

AI Prob

8.0%

Price (Then)

2.6¢

Price (Now)

2.6¢

Kelly Stake

1.5u

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Featuring Timothee Chalamet and directed by Josh Safdie under A24, this film has the quintessential 'Oscar bait' profile. The current market price suggests it is a fringe contender, but its actual potential as a frontrunner is much higher.

BUYING YES

BUY 🡆 YES

Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value Sleeper

+400% EV

Conf: 60/100

Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

AI Prob

3.0%

Price (Then)

0.6¢

Price (Now)

0.6¢

Kelly Stake

0.5u

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Trier's 'Worst Person in the World' was a critical phenomenon. His follow-up with Renate Reinsve will be a major festival player in 2025. At 0.6% probability, the market is ignoring a proven prestige director.

BUYING YES