The 68th Grammy Awards ceremony on February 1, 2026, presents a significant mispricing in the Best New Artist category, where the market is overly concentrated on favorite Olivia Dean. While Dean is highly acclaimed, Leon Thomas stands out as a powerful value play due to his six nominations and an Album of the Year nod, a profile that historically correlates strongly with a win.
Will Leon Thomas win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
AI Prob
25.0%
Price (Then)
12.5¢
Price (Now)
12.5¢
Kelly Stake
2u
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Leon Thomas is the most decorated nominee in this field with six total nominations tonight, including the prestigious Album of the Year for 'MUTT'. As a previous Grammy winner (for songwriting on SZA's 'Snooze'), he has deep peer respect within the Recording Academy, mirroring the profile of 2024 winner Victoria Monét.
BUYING YES
BUY 🡆 YES
Lola Young: The Critical Dark Horse
+166% EV
Conf: 5/100
Will Lola Young win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
AI Prob
2.0%
Price (Then)
0.8¢
Price (Now)
0.8¢
Kelly Stake
0.5u
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Priced at less than 1%, Lola Young represents a massive expected value play as a critical darling. Prominent analysts like 'Switched On Pop' have picked her as the winner, and her breakthrough single 'Messy' has strong momentum with voters who value technical vocal prowess and songwriting over chart volume.
BUYING YES
BUY 🡆 YES
Alex Warren: Commercial Juggernaut Overlooked
+130% EV
Conf: 6/100
Will Alex Warren win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
AI Prob
6.0%
Price (Then)
2.6¢
Price (Now)
2.6¢
Kelly Stake
0.8u
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Alex Warren's 2025 was defined by unprecedented commercial dominance, including 10 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with 'Ordinary'. As the reigning MTV VMA Best New Artist, his probability of conversion is far higher than the 2.6% price implies, especially if the Academy looks to reward chart impact.
BUYING YES
BUY 🡆 NO
Fade Olivia Dean: The Overpriced Favorite
+64% EV
Conf: 7/100
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
AI Prob
35.0%
Price (Then)
21.3¢
Price (Now)
21.3¢
Kelly Stake
1.5u
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At an implied 78.7% chance, Olivia Dean is priced for a near-lock scenario. However, her lack of General Field nominations (AOTY, ROTY, SOTY) relative to Leon Thomas makes her vulnerable to an upset; fading her at 0.213 covers the field of seven other talented nominees.
BUYING NO
BUY 🡆 YES
KATSEYE: High-Profile Longshot Value
+93% EV
Conf: 4/100
Will KATSEYE win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
AI Prob
3.0%
Price (Then)
1.6¢
Price (Now)
1.6¢
Kelly Stake
0.4u
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KATSEYE has a major presence tonight with a scheduled ceremony performance and multiple nominations. As the first global group of their kind to reach this level of Grammy recognition, they have a higher floor of support than the current longshot pricing suggests.
BUYING YES
BUY 🡆 NO
Sombr: Overvalued Middle-Tier Nominee
+4% EV
Conf: 9/100
Will Sombr win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
AI Prob
98.5%
Price (Then)
94.8¢
Price (Now)
94.8¢
Kelly Stake
5u
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Sombr is priced at a 5.15% 'Yes' chance, which is significantly higher than fellow nominees with more commercial or critical momentum (like Alex Warren or Lola Young). Betting 'No' at 0.9485 is a high-confidence bankroll builder, as he lacks the necessary buzz to overcome the favorites.