Market Analysis

Analysis generated 75 hours ago

Executive Summary

2/2/2026, 10:23:56 PM

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 marks the debut of the 'Version 3' (Block 3) hardware and the first use of the new Pad 2 at Starbase, currently targeted for mid-March 2026. Given the complexity of the new vehicle version and the company's usual cadence, a launch within March remains highly probable, though a February launch is virtually impossible.

Source #1 Source #2

BUY 🡆 YES

March Launch Highly Probable

+46% EV

Conf: 85/100

Will SpaceX Starship Flight 12 launch by March 31?

AI Prob

70.0%

Price (Then)

48.0¢

Price (Now)

48.0¢

Kelly Stake

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On January 26, 2026, Elon Musk estimated the launch would occur in 6 weeks (roughly March 9). While SpaceX timelines often slip, a 3-week buffer until March 31 is significant given the current hardware readiness (Booster 19 and Ship 39 are stacked). The 48% market price is an undervaluation of the company's intent to push V3 into testing quickly.

BUYING YES

BUY 🡆 NO

No Catch Attempt Likely for V3 Debut

+8% EV

Conf: 90/100

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

AI Prob

95.0%

Price (Then)

88.0¢

Price (Now)

88.0¢

Kelly Stake

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Multiple credible reports and historical patterns for major vehicle iterations (V3) suggest SpaceX will favor an ocean splashdown to validate the new hardware and new Pad 2 systems before attempting a high-risk tower catch. Musk has indicated that ship/booster catches for V3 are more likely to start with Flight 13 or 14.

BUYING NO

BUY 🡆 YES

High Probability of Ship Splashdown Success

+22% EV

Conf: 80/100

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

AI Prob

78.0%

Price (Then)

64.0¢

Price (Now)

64.0¢

Kelly Stake

2.5u

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Starship reentry control has improved dramatically, with Flight 6, 10, and 11 showing high precision and reliability in landing burns. While V3 is a new platform, the core landing logic and heat shield improvements (sealing tiles) are mature enough to justify a higher probability than the current 64%.

BUYING YES

PASS 🡆 NO

Safe 'No' for February Launch

-0% EV

Conf: 98/100

Will SpaceX Starship Flight 12 launch by February 28?

AI Prob

99.0%

Price (Then)

99.4¢

Price (Now)

99.4¢

Kelly Stake

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With a 6-week estimate provided in late January, a launch by Feb 28 is nearly impossible. However, the market is already priced at 99.4% for 'No', leaving no margin for profit after fees/spread.

SELLING NO

BUY 🡆 YES

Booster 'Explosion' Mispricing

+32% EV

Conf: 70/100

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

AI Prob

75.0%

Price (Then)

57.0¢

Price (Now)

57.0¢

Kelly Stake

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Historically, Super Heavy boosters that splash down in the ocean typically explode or break apart shortly after tip-over. If the market follows standard 'any explosion' criteria, 'Yes' is the likely outcome even for a 'successful' mission. Additionally, Flight 12 is the maiden flight of V3, which inherently carries higher RUD risk.

BUYING YES