Market Analysis

Analysis generated 5 hours ago

Executive Summary

2/5/2026, 7:56:03 PM

The Paris 2026 mayoral race is currently in a state of flux following incumbent Anne Hidalgo's decision not to run, leading to significant mispricing among potential successors. The market currently overestimates Emmanuel Grégoire's dominance despite the mayor's endorsement of a rival socialist candidate, while far-right candidates like Sarah Knafo are priced with 'meme' premiums despite having zero statistical path to victory in Paris.

BUY 🡆 NO

Fade Grégoire After Hidalgo Endorsement Shift

+80% EV

Conf: 85/100

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

AI Prob

55.0%

Price (Then)

30.5¢

Price (Now)

30.5¢

Kelly Stake

4.5u

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Emmanuel Grégoire is priced at nearly 70% to win, which ignores the recent endorsement of Senator Rémi Féraud by current Mayor Anne Hidalgo. This endorsement creates a significant split within the ruling Socialist Party (PS) block. If Féraud becomes the consensus candidate for the left, Grégoire's chances fall to near zero. A 70% probability also fails to account for a potential entry by heavyweight Gabriel Attal.

BUYING NO

BUY 🡆 NO

Capture Yield on Implausible Knafo Victory

+2% EV

Conf: 98/100

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?

AI Prob

99.9%

Price (Then)

98.0¢

Price (Now)

98.0¢

Kelly Stake

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Paris is historically and demographically the most hostile major city in France for the far-right. Sarah Knafo (Reconquête) has no local political base in the capital, and the party rarely exceeds 5-8% in Parisian elections. A nearly 2% 'Yes' price is a 'celebrity' premium; the actual mathematical probability of a far-right win in the indirect Parisian voting system is virtually zero.

BUYING NO

BUY 🡆 YES

Dati is Undervalued as the Primary Challenger

+40% EV

Conf: 70/100

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

AI Prob

38.0%

Price (Then)

27.0¢

Price (Now)

27.0¢

Kelly Stake

2.5u

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As the current Minister of Culture and leader of the main opposition in Paris, Dati is the only candidate on the right/center with high name recognition and a consolidated base. If the center-right (LR) and the presidential majority (Ensemble) unite behind her to prevent a left-wing victory, her odds are significantly higher than the current 27% market price.

BUYING YES

BUY 🡆 YES

Deep Value Play on Bournazel

+1150% EV

Conf: 40/100

Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election?

AI Prob

5.0%

Price (Then)

0.4¢

Price (Now)

0.4¢

Kelly Stake

0.5u

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Bournazel is a serious local politician from the Horizons party. While a long shot, a 0.4% (250-to-1) probability is a gross mispricing for a legitimate candidate who could emerge as a compromise figure if the major coalitions (Grégoire/Dati) implode or fail to reach an agreement between rounds.

BUYING YES

BUY 🡆 NO

LFI Candidacy is a Structural Non-Starter

+0% EV

Conf: 95/100

Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?

AI Prob

99.9%

Price (Then)

99.7¢

Price (Now)

99.7¢

Kelly Stake

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While LFI has strength in specific arrondissements, the mayoral position is elected by a council that is historically dominated by the Socialist/Green alliance. Chikirou is a divisive figure even within the left; it is politically impossible for her to lead a successful city-wide coalition in Paris.

BUYING NO

BUY 🡆 NO

Exploit High No-Price on RN in Paris

+0% EV

Conf: 99/100

Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?

AI Prob

99.9%

Price (Then)

99.9¢

Price (Now)

99.9¢

Kelly Stake

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The Rassemblement National (RN) is toxic in central Paris politics. Thierry Mariani has zero path to building the 50%+1 council majority required to become mayor. While the return is small, the probability of failure is near-certainty.

BUYING NO