Market Analysis

The 'Yes' outcome is triggered by death, resignation, or the inability to fulfill duties. Current intelligence from early 2026 indicates Khamenei has retreated to a bunker following assassination threats and is suffering from recurring coma-like episodes and cognitive decline. While the regime's security forces successfully crushed the January 2026 massacres, the transition to a 'Regency Council' in all but name suggests the criteria for being 'prevented from fulfilling duties' is already partially met. Actuarial risk alone for an 86-year-old under this level of stress exceeds the 43.5% market price.