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Market Analysis
Analysis generated 26 hours ago
Executive Summary
2/4/2026, 10:53:50 PMNBA trade markets are currently inflated by deadline speculation, particularly for superstars like Giannis and Morant who face massive logistical or health hurdles. Reliable reports as of February 4, 2026, indicate that several major trade discussions for Sabonis and Giannis have cooled or stalled, creating high-value opportunities to bet against a mid-season move.
BUY 🡆 NO
Fade the Morant Rebuild Hype
+116% EV
Conf: 75/100
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?
AI Prob
65.0%
Price (Then)
30.0¢
Price (Now)
30.0¢
Kelly Stake
5u
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While Memphis is reportedly rebuilding, Morant's recent left elbow UCL sprain sidelines him past the trade deadline, drastically reducing his market value. A mid-season trade for an injured franchise star on a max contract is historically rare; a 70% market price for 'Yes' is a massive overreaction to local rumors.
BUYING NO
BUY 🡆 NO
Sabonis Trade Talks 'Flat-Lined'
+44% EV
Conf: 92/100
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?
AI Prob
95.0%
Price (Then)
66.0¢
Price (Now)
66.0¢
Kelly Stake
5u
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Insider reports from The Athletic and ESPN confirm that talks between the Kings and Raptors have 'flat-lined' within 24 hours of the deadline. With both teams unable to agree on draft compensation and salary matching, Sabonis is almost certain to remain in Sacramento.
BUYING NO
BUY 🡆 NO
Giannis Likely to Stay Mid-Season
+42% EV
Conf: 88/100
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?
AI Prob
85.0%
Price (Then)
60.0¢
Price (Now)
60.0¢
Kelly Stake
4u
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The majority of league executives believe Giannis will remain in Milwaukee past February 5th. His high salary ($51M+) makes mid-season trades difficult, and a recent calf injury suggests any potential blockbuster move will be deferred to the 2026 offseason when more teams have flexible assets.
BUYING NO
BUY 🡆 NO
Kuminga Becomes Essential Depth
+15% EV
Conf: 80/100
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?
AI Prob
82.0%
Price (Then)
71.0¢
Price (Now)
71.0¢
Kelly Stake
3u
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Despite an earlier trade demand, the season-ending ACL injury to Jimmy Butler has forced Golden State to pivot; team sources now describe a Kuminga trade as 'less likely' because the Warriors need his wing production to remain competitive in the West.
BUYING NO
BUY 🡆 NO
KAT Locked in NY Rotation
+8% EV
Conf: 85/100
Will Karl-Anthony Towns be traded this season?
AI Prob
95.0%
Price (Then)
88.0¢
Price (Now)
88.0¢
Kelly Stake
2u
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Towns was central to hypothetical Giannis-to-Knicks frameworks; since a Giannis move has stalled, the catalyst for a KAT trade has vanished. The Knicks' recent resurgence and the logistical difficulty of moving his large contract so soon after his 2024 arrival protect his 'No' outcome.
BUYING NO
BUY 🡆 NO
Safe Play on Markkanen Stability
+2% EV
Conf: 98/100
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?
AI Prob
99.0%
Price (Then)
96.7¢
Price (Now)
96.7¢
Kelly Stake
5u
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Utah has consistently messaged that Markkanen is their franchise cornerstone and has shown no urgency to sell despite the rebuild. With less than 24 hours to the deadline and no active rumors, the probability of a move is negligible.
BUYING NO